Karthick Ramakrishnan, Researcher at UC Berkeley and Strategy Lead for the Americas, School of International FuturesRobin Champ, Vice President, Strategic Foresight, LBL StrategiesBrian David Johnson, Professor of Practice, Arizona State University
February 28, 2025
Abstract: Foresight, or strategic foresight, is a set of methods and approaches that enable researchers and decision makers to think systematically about the future, and to plan and perform under conditions of high volatility and deep uncertainty. Unlike forecasting, which involves simplifying assumptions to make projections and predictions, foresight involves the consideration of different plausible futures.
Modern foresight first gained currency in the U.S. military in the early Cold War period and developed further in the 1960s and 1970s through the corporate scenario work of Shell Oil. The practice has grown tremendously in the past decade, as government agencies and private sector actors alike grapple with decision making under conditions of deep uncertainty and high volatility generated by factors such as climate change, technological developments, and shifting political orders.
This article presents an overview of foresight techniques, their strengths and limitations, and their application to various contexts of decision making. It concludes with recommendations on ways that scholars and practitioners can strengthen the research and practice of strategic foresight given the scale of challenges we face, from the local to the global.